President Donald Trump’s failure to slow inflation will doom Republicans in next fall’s midterm elections, says CNN data guru Harry Enten.
Enten said Americans now view Democratic lawmakers as more trustworthy than Republicans to handle inflation—albeit, only by one point. Still, that is a rapid shift from Oct. 2022, when Republicans held a 13-point advantage on the issue.
“This is an abject disaster for the president of the United States,” Enten said of the latest numbers.
The analyst noted that Trump’s approval rating for handling inflation is “in the gutter,” tanking from +9 on Election Day down to -25 today.
“He’s 25 points underwater,” Enten said. “My goodness gracious, that is where The Little Mermaid is, and he is matching The Little Mermaid. That’s how far underwater he is on the issue that got him elected.”
Inflation is by far the most pressing issue in the eyes of U.S. voters. Enten said that a July poll showed that it is the top issue for 34 percent of the electorate—more than double the next most important issue, “the economy,” at 16 percent. It was this very sentiment ahead of the 2024 election that Trump campaigned on, promising to lower the cost of eggs, gas, and other household staples.
Increasing inflation and Trump’s lack of attention to address the issue is a disastrous combination for congressional Republicans next fall, Enten said.
“Poll after poll after poll says that Donald Trump has taken his eye off the ball, off the big issue of the day, which is inflation,” he said. “I can guarantee you this, Jessica, if these numbers look right now like they do—or will look—on Election Day 2026, there is no way on God’s green earth that Republicans can hold on to the House of Representatives.”
The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) released Tuesday showed core inflation, which excludes food and energy, came in worse than expected. It is the most significant one-month increase since January, when the president first took office.
The index also determined core inflation was up 0.3 percent for last month and up 3.1 percent from a year ago, making it the largest annual increase since February.
The economy’s downward trend, which experts say is a result of Trump’s obsession with tariffs, may erase his party’s control of Congress.
The House is currently made up of 219 Republicans, 212 Democrats, and has four vacant seats, making for a slim majority for the GOP. It is equally tight in the Senate, which has 53 Republicans, 45 Democrats, and two Independents who caucus with Democrats.
Republicans are desperately trying to redraw districts in red states—like Texas and Florida—to protect their majority in the midterms. Democrats like California Gov. Gavin Newsom have threatened to retaliate by doing the same in blue states.
