Republican state Sen. Randy Fine is projected to win the race for Florida’s open congressional seat, a victory that gives Republicans—including President Donald Trump, who loudly endorsed Fine—reason to breathe a sigh of relief.
The seat in question opened up when Trump’s new White House national security adviser, Mike Waltz, was elevated to that position earlier this year.
The campaign, between Fine and Democratic public school teacher Josh Weil, had caused a bit of alarm in Republican circles in part due to Weil’s considerable fundraising advantage. The Democrat announced last month his campaign had brought in $9 million, compared to Fine’s total of just under $1 million.
Another point of concern that led to no small amount of GOP sweat was a Republican poll that showed Weil trailing Fine by just 3 points. In 2024, Waltz beat his Democratic challenger handily, 67 to 33 percent. At that time, however, he was on the ballot alongside Donald Trump.
With 99 percent of votes counted as of publication, Fine leads Weil, 57 percent to 43, according to the Associated Press.
The Democratic National Committee, in a statement after the race was called, applauded Weil’s “stunning overperformance.”
“Congratulations to Josh Weil for running a strong campaign. In 2025, Democrats have overperformed the top of the ticket in nearly every election as voters turn out in blue, purple, and red districts to voice their anger at Donald Trump and Elon Musk. Tonight was no different,” DNC Chair Ken Martin said.
Leading up to Election Day, the race was seen as a national bellwether, with Martin campaigning in the district and Trump holding a virtual town hall for Fine.
Fine, a member of the Florida House of Representatives from 2016 to 2024, led efforts against conservative bogeymen like mask mandates, critical race theory, diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI) practices, and, at one point, the Disney corporation.
Fine’s controversial statements include him claiming, after an ISIS-inspired attack in New Orleans in January, that there is a “worldwide Muslim Problem.” Last year, Fine, who is Jewish, called the United Nations a “terrorist organization” over its criticism of Israel’s war in the Gaza strip.
Another staunch pro-Israel comment of his came in June 2021 in response to a user on X who posted an image of what appeared to be a dead Palestinian child. When the user asked Fine how he slept at night, he replied, “Quite well, actually! Thanks for the pic!”
Fine initially endorsed Gov. Ron DeSantis in the 2024 GOP primary, but became the first Florida lawmaker to endorse Trump in October 2023. His reason: he felt DeSantis hadn’t done enough to counter antisemitism.
Fine’s win, which was aided by the pro-Israel lobbying group AIPAC, isn’t all that surprising, since about 49 percent of the 6th Congressional District’s active registered voters are Republicans and 26 percent are Democrats. The area, which sits to the north of Orlando, hasn’t been represented by a Democrat since the late 1980s.
Trump gloated over Fine’s victory in a post on Truth Social Tuesday night.
“BOTH FLORIDA HOUSE SEATS HAVE BEEN WON, BIG, BY THE REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE. THE TRUMP ENDORSEMENT, AS ALWAYS, PROVED FAR GREATER THAN THE DEMOCRATS FORCES OF EVIL. CONGRATULATIONS TO AMERICA!!!” he wrote.
Florida’s other special congressional election was to replace former Rep. Matt Gaetz, who resigned his seat in the 1st District upon being named Donald Trump’s pick for attorney general last November. Gaetz ultimately withdrew his nomination amid considerable attention on previous allegations that he had sex with a minor and used illegal drugs—claims which he has denied.
Gaetz now hosts a show on the right-wing cable channel One America News Network.
Gaetz’s replacement is Republican Jimmy Patronis, Florida’s chief financial officer, who beat Democrat Gay Valimont, a gun control advocate who had challenged Gaetz last November.
Tuesday’s race in the panhandle district, like the one on the other side of the state, was closer than in November. While Valimont had received 34 percent then, this time around she won 42 percent.
Nevertheless, Republicans’ slim congressional majority endures. With Tuesday’s wins, they hold 220 seats—two more than the number needed for a majority in a full House.
